Its speculation, pure and simple. Also, saying Blockchain Yes and Bitcoin No is tantamount to saying, Social Media is great but Facebook is not so great, or Internet Search is Great but Google is not Great!!! It certainly is for day traders in short term. January 3, 2018, 7:32 am. Vijay how can it be a useful currency without a relatively stable value? Bitcoin mania isnt different from the dot.com mania or any other mania going back to the tulip mania. The Vigilante So theres a positive feedback loop here. January 23, 2018, 12:50 am, Why Mr. Money Mustache is wrong and Nassim Taleb is right about Bitcoin: https://medium.com/p/81f5ffa42deb?source=linkShare-6c666494704c-1516693614. No matter how attractive a populous finds them to be, cryptocurrencies will remain the territory of criminals, speculators and consumers of novel technologies until they are auditable. Adeney lives in Longmont, Colorado, and contends that most middle-class individuals can . This idea that you HAVE TO OWN ONE FULL BITCOIN is madness. January 2, 2018, 6:09 pm. Educate yourself on Lightning Network or layer 2 protocols of Bitcoin. their invested dollars add value to a society the moment they are employed.. Own as much Bitcoin as matches your understanding of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is actually a saviour that provides the world an opportunity to get out of total mess without fighting a WW3! I really would hope that MMM doesnt sell out like most social influencers but regardless not understanding the technology is no excuse for spreading fear, uncertainty and doubt about it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fw3WkySh_Ho. Its a huge money maker if you can bet that youre not the bigger fool. If you read your history on this subject you would understand why I dont. Not the only reason, but if earnings dont pan out, stock prices wont necessarily drop. Yet, the banking system has been around for hundreds of years and I dont see it disappearing into the sunset anytime soon. That, is where were at. For a shortcut to understanding good investing, you can also simply look up Warren Buffets thinking on almost any topic hes careful enough about offering opinions that by the time he makes a statement on something, you can be pretty sure it will be among the best answers out there. As a result, changes in perceived value result in big price swings. Do pay attention, please. When contracts cannot be broken nobody needs to oversee contracts. Do you really believe that we should go all-in when it comes to trusting our institutional financial establishments? January 3, 2018, 7:20 am. However, investing in Bitcoin now seems more along the lines of investing in a BBS in the early 90s. Im not advocating throwing all your money into crypto (I havent see anyone say that). Bitcoin is a universal currency and is not here to just replace your USD alone! Comparing bitcoin to tulip bulbs is intellectually lazy or deliberately misleading. Something only has value if ppl place a value on it. I also remember that bubble..sure a lot of things moved to the internet but it had to crash..hard first. They may settle to much less, or get close to zero, or they may grow more, no one can really predict this. All that the US has done since 2008, is hit the ball further and further down the road while at the same time blowing it more and more with air (read Quantitative Easing). "Find a graph that includes [the. Well, that is not what we are discussing are we? Consensus over its value. Pete and his wife retired at. . I dont care either way about bitcoin and am not even sure why hydro comes into the discussion, but you cant say something so blatantly 180 degrees false and expect not to be corrected! You could just hold a fraction and still see it grow with time, much faster than most other investment avenues available today. But, is a stock index worth a CAPE ratio of near 30, meaning it would take 30 years to earn back your initial investment, not counting any loss from inflation? The bubble crashed and the internet didnt die. Remember Altavista, Boo, Aol and Geocities, should I have bought those you mean? If it was instead patentable Id buy some stock in the holder. I'm sure this had nothing to do with their personal stake in the outcome." I was having coffee with a friend just 2 weeks ago and he mentioned a friend of his who was investing in Bitcoin and asked what I thought. Absolutely, so Ill proceed with it. While silver and copper has been used as a form of money (notably imperial China, it was a silver based society with gold used as a high currency), golds special attributes has always been seen as a form of value storage and trusted trade medium. Gold may be irrational, if you insist that it is. Another intelligent case by highly experienced crypto business lawyer Preston Byrne. Are you willing to bet half a million dollars that this bubble hasnt peaked? Your turn to supply real numbers. Pretty much. Brent Weaver El Penguin You can keep saying its a bubble for eternity. January 11, 2018, 12:03 am. This is really useful for me to hone my thinking about the topic. Of course get out NOW. Moneymeister 16-02-2023 WIDM 2023: mijn mening en verdenkingen tot nu toe. Why? Given that China has a lot of bitcoin mines and electricity is produced by coal in China mostly thats a lot of unnecessary CO2 that just got bumped in the atmosphere. Well, imagine you are in 1963 and you hear the speech I have a dream from Martin Luther King on abolishing slavery and you ask the question Why do you think this will happen?. I advise you look at the 10-year PE ratio. Most of this money is being spent on military operations to secure foreign resources and kill people will dissenting viewpoints in the name of national security. I could only shake my head. So you are further wagering that Bitcoin will literally supplant the USD as the world medium of financial exchange, and frankly, that is kinda bonkers. Today, Jan 26, at 11:30 AM, its trading around $31,850. January 2, 2018, 6:01 pm. Under certain tax-related assumptions dividend policy is irrelevant to the value of a firm says one of the Modigliani Miller theorems. But if you have some play money, it doesnt hurt to speculate if that is what you enjoy doing and dont mind losing everything you put in. As platforms. Chris Urbaniak Investors who valued Apple and Microsoft and rich now and that is not because they spotted a Ponzi scheme. And even if that was true, there are still many forms of private sales going on everyday where people dont want a traceable form of payment / exchange. January 11, 2018, 4:23 am. January 2, 2018, 7:11 pm. Or physical goods if you want to use it to record land or vehicle deeds, etc. Its absolutely astounding how the general (pretty darn) intelligent public cant tell the difference between an real asset vs an investment. However, some cryptocurrencies DO have intrinsic value, which is computational power. I want to know will it make my day to day life easier? I even read about these things for fun, with Simon Singhs The Code Book and the Neil Stephenson novel Cryptonomicon being particularly fun shortcuts to pick up some of the workings and the context of cryptography. Remember 2008? 3. November 20, 2018, 9:31 am, rollie fingers Now they trust the mathematics, and the lack of centralized human control. Started by kayvent. I just dont understand the new economy. Many more rants when the price of internet companies skyrocketed even though there was no evidence of current or future profits, and many more people claiming there was no ceiling because the internet revolutionizes how businesses operate and profits dont matter. But, dont you initially invest money into Bitcoin thru your bank? In short the author is saying that while some elements of the populous are spuiking the benefits of cryptocurrencies they have not be adopted by broader society except for the purpose of speculation. Many are trying to perfect it but until there is a clear winner, different ones will emerge. However EVERY SINGLE BITCOIN TRANSACTION IS PERMANENTLY RECORDED AND TRACEABLE. Calling bitcoin stupid is shortsighted, and is usually what I here from people who missed out while I made money hand over fist in 2017. Nothing is 100% guaranteed in life. And yet this is exactly whats happening with Bitcoin. Reward for Risk is worse for Powerball. 2) Volatility the market cap of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is small compared to that of fiat currencies. I can 100 percent guarantee you that my mom and pop will still be using fiat paper, and so will I, and so will the worlds governments. Besides, how do you get BTC in the first place? You know things arent a good investment when there are Bitcoin ATMs at bars. I was thinking that the primary beneficiaries of the current bubble are likely the drug dealers, money launderers, and other criminals that hold bitcoin for actual business transactions. The real test of if you should be a cryptocurrency supporter:would you be exactly as passionate and spend the same amount of time thinking about it,if Bitcoin were still an obscure piece of code, worth less than one cent, and offered no chance of ever earning you any money? MentalArson it is as simple as that. Is this likely to be worth $20,000 long term? Firstly, if Jihan is that rich, its probably because he doesnt spend his money. Guys. It can be forged. The issue with the .com bubble was internet companies were given a high valuation with no demonstration that they were profitable or even provided a service/product. But really, I'm not a finance guy - someone who devotes most of his time to optimizing money. https://www.statista.com/statistics/326707/bitcoin-price-index/. January 2, 2018, 6:06 pm, Agreed! if there was something I wanted to buy online from another country and they didnt take the dollar for whatever reason its an OK solution. Heck no. If FIRE is your goal, Id get out. I agree with you, Chris. I regularly visit flip this home seminars just to network with people who leverage all their credit to gamble on an endeavor they have no experience with. We save up our purchases. Blockchain may be the future, but that doesnt mean any of the current currencies will be worth anything. Do you think Governments and Regulators have sat on the sidelines so far while Bitcoin is just exploding to a point that MMM had to sit and write a huge article? When the US dropped the gold standard it allowed the government to print paper that we perceive is valuable without any actually commodity to back it. January 17, 2018, 9:00 am, bitcoin is down 50% in the past three weeks. (Its also very hard to make jewelry out of. But nobody seems to be able to put together a real reason why Bitcoin isnt the next Pets.com, Uberartist Mr. Money Mustac. Meanwhile in China there are multiple football fields sized bitcoin farms. The Bitcoin Faithful also mock me for considering all cryptocurrencies (current and future) as candidates for eventual dominance in transactions, rather than just assuming it would be BTC. Do we really want a place where youre either an Amazonian or Walmartian? Youve made a great profit, and you can play with that $28k. Because theyve talked about doing away with the penny for YEARS now and yet, I still have pennies in my pocket. So just relax, lean into it, and grow rich with me. Prices would rise, especially if the supply of these pills was limited (just as an artificial supply limit is built right into the Bitcoin algorithm.). And nothing that can go on forever, does. Gox, Bitfinex, and the various wallets and exchanges that have been hacked). How many decades of using toilet paper as a useful medium of exchange are required before you reevaluate your position? If you ever want to see what a real bubble looks like, please look at a long term chart of stocksor dollars for that matterpriced in gold. Well said! He pulled this off by living on a small percentage of his income as a software engineer, and diligently . Might want to polish that up before going public again. Today, 20 years down the road you are watching 4K videos on it! Why Bitcoin and not another coin? Even a war on drugs, which has a physical element, isnt being won by central gov. This one is just simply incorrect. There is a very good chance that this article will be the butt of jokes 5 years down the road, when the toilet paper fiat currencies are all passe! On the other hand, paying a ridiculously high speculative price based only on what others *might* be willing to pay in the futurebased on little historical or reasonable evidencecertainly is insane. Bitcoins etc does not make it easier at all. The response was amazing and, unfortunately, there were simply to many to include them all. The account is now worth over $500k, but the high was closer to $700k. Nothing wrong with speculation, as long as you are doing so responsibly and understand the risks. On the other hand, if youre cool with allowing remote-controlled robots to kill 3rd world women and children in your name, then keep using only US Dollars. *pop*. ), Im in the same boat. Is it speculation, sure, but its no different that speculating on the future price of a stock, or oil, or the rental market. Hell if I believed that I would work my ass of taking EVERYTHING I could and putting it into cryptos! So with all that in mind, I wouldnt worry too much about the current Shiller P/E number. The Cryptocurrency bubble is really a replay of the past: A good percentage of Humans are prone to mass delusions which lead to irrational behavior. Bigger bulb, vs smaller, vs healthy, vs rotted. Hi Financialindependence.. The timestamp on these comments is pretty helpful to see who was right! Same with internet search: remember AltaVista, Lycos, Dogpile? Overall, it is just as likely to go up as it is down, especially in the near term, and is best to avoid all together unless you just love gambling and dont care about losing money. But I hope the good times continue for a long while! No major government will transact in a currency it cannot control. Its not going to consume ALL the worlds energy? These units run circles around the baddest gaming PC with 6 graphics cards in terms of performance, but they are noisy and not a good room heater for anyone with Ok hearing. Is the theory that eventually there wont be anymore banks? Mining other coins can still be profitable with graphics cards, mainly ETH/ETC. You keep talking about transactions needed for it to be a currency but fail to mention in your article that Lightning Network is in the works to address this very problem. The question is if one is worth $15k? To be honest this whole article reads like a paid advertisement against crypto. Only the most weak and fearful people will allow themselves to be stolen from for the sake of mythical national security that comes from trillions of dollars of military spending. how is this different than a crypto? Watch on. This instability just further proves that it would make a terrible currency and a recent study reveals that about 95% of even the trading volume is fraudulent. The rise in bitcoin represents people waking up to one delusion (false paper valuations) and unfortunately accepting another delusionthat digits are more valuable and trustworthy than paper. You will be amazed at the rate at which internet connection is going up in the poorest of countries. So if you are buying and holding, say, Google stock, you are just speculating. Our Banker friend goes on to explain that the first Cancer-Pill might initially see some great sales. to convince them myself. I just wish it had come out before the holidays so I could have just pointed family members to it instead of attempting (unsuccessfully!) Most people cant afford to drop huge amounts in crypto at one time, so you have college kids paying $2-3 every week buying $50 worth of BTC. Hes helped thousands of people improve their lives. Individuals getting rich off speculation doesnt mean its not speculation. However, taking a very small gamble doesnt hurt 99% is invested in s&p 500 and that will remain like that :). TO_Ont It needs to expand with the supply of goods and services in the world, otherwise we end up with deflation and hoarding. His rhetoric about trusting the wise elites of the Federal Reserve also irks me. Id much rather invest in shares of Ripple Inc than in XRP. Peopleve been lusting after gold (god knows why) for millennia because it clearly arouses something inside them. Why does bitcoin have to be the winner? Gold bullion has several thousand years of history. Besides, theres value in bitcoin, like with gold or a comic book, or any other item people assign a value to. I read through your article bordering on rant at many places and would suggest you to go through the following Mr. Money Mustache. It is 110% of your total and entire GDP, and that is just your Federal Debt. Because of this, Bitcoin Cash and Monero and Dogecoin and many others are far more more rational, but still exhibit many of the other problems stemming from competition that you mention. I am of the opinion all of Fiat will get wiped out in a decade or two! MMM, you cannot call Bitcoin Stupid and then go tangentially into an Utopian discourse. Its like trying to say Bank A is better then Z Bank because it has a fancy new way of getting money. They always do.. 15 Replies 10705 Views March 26, 2020, 05:23:27 PM . Money only has value if it is stable and trusted. (And very badly compared to other cryptocurrencies.). MentalArson Why the hell would you have an intermediary like that when buying bitcoins? January 3, 2018, 4:56 pm. Tim Beck But thats just the software side (Blockchain). The sooner we debunk the myth and come to our senses, the richer our world will be. But not possible with Bitcoin transaction costs for BTC are up in the integer $ range and can take hours. This is Part 2 of 2. It isnt enough to live off of, but its definitely nice to have a net $500 or so in my pocket at the end of each month. Thank you! Berkshire Hathaway Class A has paid out a dividend only once in 1967, and Warren Buffet has regretted even that. For just $2 you could be a multimillionaire. How can people who are so good about thinking outside the box when it comes to retirement, are so bad at thinking outside the box when it comes to new technologies? We? One thing that most people seem to miss about why gold was favoured as a form of money (scarcity and shininess) is the fact that it literally lasts. Apparently they didnt like my edits, where I called out rogue nations for propping up BitCoin as a means to bypass sanctions. The behavior of bitcoin since the genesis block has been completely different. Justin C If you can afford to lose the $500K and want to let it ride, go for it. Of course, I doubt we are already at the 10%. if you over leverage yourself in any of these you can find yourself in trouble. Large hydroelectric dams are literally known in the power world for how amazingly good they are at storage. Im selling because I agree that cryptocurrencies have entered the bubble phase, but when it comes to theirlong-term viability, you have completely missed the bigger picture. Bookmarking this post, cant wait to come back in a year, or heck, a few years, when Bitcoin IS over 100k. The growing demand for more electricity is the most serious issue with Bitcoin, IMO. I believe the current Cryptocurrency investment mania is a huge waste of human energy, and our rate of waste has been growing exponentially. Theres illegal activity in all its shapes and forms (ie. I 100% agree with what Vijay has been saying. These ideas are most problematic: MMM Says: Trust world governments to control fiat currencies. As we know from MMM teachings, safety and security are lies. In the field of personal wealth, this means walking your children past the idling lineup of your neighbors Mercedes SUVs, over the snowy grass and up to the door of the school and being confident that you are doing the right thing. As soon as I read you were selling a bag of your nail clippings for $100, I thought to myself that is a great deal! Because reasons, technology and internet! I was tempted by the neat aspect of being involved in this thing I knew would have some kind of future value blockchain. January 3, 2018, 4:34 am, Dont plan on investing in cryptocurrency. If you cant grasp the difference between the two, then by all means sink your capital into crypto-currencies as they are currently valued. There are many reasonable prices for these goods that are non-speculative in nature. If so, this could negate the discount benefit for small purchases. They get to sell me their give cards at a discount and I get to buy stuff from Amazon for cheaper. The problem with Bitcoin, (really all of the crypto currencies) is their value is not tied to anything of value. Or stay in touch with them because they might become millionaires? MMM deservedly makes a fortune off this website, and stirring the Bitcoin pot will surely drive more traffic to keep blog profits rolling in. Speculation is fine, as long as you are using only money you are willing to lose. Started by JenniferW. Its super risky and probably not compatible with mustachianism, but that said its pretty interesting and I think it remains possible that MMM is wrong. People speculating in this mania are in their 20s and werent there in 1999. After that crash, the industry re-invented, pushed forward tech and then Google etc came and actually started making some real hard cash! January 2, 2018, 7:03 pm. It a high-tech form of protest. Thats what happens when a real bonafide bubble bursts. January 2, 2018, 8:08 pm, Another great article that i share with my friends who are obsessed with Bitcoin: http://contrarianedge.com/2017/12/01/bitcoin-millennials-fake-gold/. Whatever they are willing to pay to enjoy owning these things themselves is their business, and may make for a fairly rational purchase. Andy Stow This will go down in history as the DUMBEST thing Mr. Money Mustache has ever written.it honestly pisses me off how dishonest he is and his he cant see the big picture out of his Statist status quo lenses. The real winners of the gold rush were the ones who sold shovels. This article is pretty below par in its research and very one sided. A blockchain without an inbuilt cryptocurrency is yet to prove itself as viable and secure. In a world of human trust, putting the wisest and most respected people in a position of Adult Supervision is a useful tactic. Ryan Thomas You guys may enjoy this article about Peter Thiel: https://www.wsj.com/articles/peter-thiels-founders-fund-makes-big-bet-on-bitcoin-1514917433. Networking. When I started to feel some FOMO, I know we have to be close to peak interest. LennStar Jul 25, 2021 164 comments I dont think so. January 2, 2018, 6:23 pm. True. Im not saying Bitcoin is the saviour of USD imperialism. As far as Im concerned, this is the final word on Bitcoin. An investment then would not be considered wasteful now. As for USD working has many reasons, required to participate in the largest economy in the world, the military power behind said economy, etc. Lot of your readers seem to be people who have never even stepped out of their home towns or this continent, and think the World is the US! So yes, blockchain = good bitcoin=maybe? In all fairness, cash USD is also used for illegal activities. Vijay, what MMM is saying is that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin cannot presently operate as currencies. Mr. Butler Im going to try putting some of my thoughts together in a post at the bottom. Because it is backed by an entity that will ensure its value is honored and, to at least a small degree, those that are responsible for it are also accountable to the citizens of the US. A good analogy is a life raft on the ocean vs an aircraft carrier. About a 1/3 of it gets taken before the IRS even gets their grubs on it. It also could be a bubble, but the crypto billionaires (the few or the hundreds who end up winning) will still need to buy their Doritos and Gameboys and lambos and helicopters, and Ill own shares in those companies no matter which currency is used. Started by myrrh. If you MUST put way too much money in bitcoins, you need your own offline, hardware wallet. Im pretty disappointed that no one responded to the points brought up by Mark D. Just more tulip bulb analogies, glib dismissals, etc. Or when I have to go to the grocery store to buy milk and theres the sign that says NO POWER, CASH ONLY and my toddler is crying for milk, Im going to pay them in cash. I think the far greater chance is your comment will be the joke. Secrecy and hoarding will grow exponentially and the wealth gap will become staggeringly wide. Digiconomist notes this would make bitcoin the 59th biggest energy consumer if it were a country.. The price went on a historic and seemingly unstoppable run all the way to $150 per barrel in 2008. January 19, 2018, 6:45 pm. Some more attractive or reliable bulbs might even reasonably cost more. February 21, 2022, 8:04 am. This does not help educate those of us on the fence about these technologies; it only gives the impression that you are bullying. The internet. I enjoyed this analysis by Aswath Damodaran, a thoughtful investor and Professor at NYU school of business. Sure, an anonymous way to exchange money and escape the eyes of a corrupt government is a good thing for human rights. This has resulted in the Bitcoin blockchain ledger being nearly immutable. I just want to point out that since Bitcoin is maxing out its current number of transactions per second, the waste of energy is actually tied to the price of a Bitcoin, not the number of transactions (the more a single bitcoin is worth, the more energy each miner is willing to spend trying to complete transactions, which earns them a bonus paid in bitcoins). People are likely to disagree on whether this is a good thing depending on their worldview. This part of it is ideological to me: You Must Earn Your Money By Creating Value for Everyone. Bitcoin is the viral buzzword that has the momentum. Bill Batchelor Index fund investing is both the simplest and the highest performing way to invest your money. Do you really think you own your Fiat paper? Buying real estate, gold, stocks, even ETFs and Bitcoins, all of these have risk. Satoshi, the founder, sits on 10% but he has never spent a single cent. But with 6-7 big mining players who dictate which fork of bitcoin to mine, the value of BTC or BCC or Segwit or whatever else comes, I have no faith in the value of BTC. Sorry, PoF, Im staying away from your Bitcoins until I see a Tweet about the ones filled with chocolate. I agree with MMM that cryptocurrency in general is kind of dubious, and that Bitcoin is a particularly stupid implementation of it. Great article! You mixed that up. theirlong-term viability, you have completely missed the bigger picture. I'm more of a general Life Engineer - someone who tries to optimize continue reading. You are a dumb man TomTX! An example for this would be Ripple (like you mentioned above) which is working closely with banks to make international transactions better. 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